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We still have no idea where this war is heading

March 2, 2026

A new regional war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has entered its third day, with Iran launching attacks on neighboring Arab states and the UK reversing its stance to allow American use of its military bases. President Trump has outlined ambitious war objectives including destroying Iran's missile capabilities, annihilating its navy, and ultimately encouraging the Iranian people to overthrow their government through regime collapse rather than direct ground invasion. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu similarly seeks to eliminate Iran's military capacity and destroy what he views as Israel's most dangerous enemy after decades of concern.

Who is affected

  • Iranian civilians (referenced as "long-suffering Iranian people")
  • Three US pilots shot down in friendly fire incident over Kuwait
  • Kuwaiti forces involved in friendly fire incident
  • Arab states who are US allies attacked by Iran
  • President Donald Trump (facing reelection)
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (facing elections with his job on the line)
  • Iranian protestors killed in January by regime security forces
  • Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and top military advisers (killed)
  • Members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (190,000 active duty, 600,000 reservists)
  • Basij paramilitary force members (450,000 estimated)
  • Civilian loyalists in Tehran gathering in public squares
  • UK (reversed policy on allowing US base usage)
  • Israel

What action is being taken

  • US and Israeli forces are conducting airstrikes on Iran (referenced as "plumes of smoke rising from US and Israeli airstrikes")
  • Iran is firing missiles at US allies and neighbors
  • US and Israel are "pulverising Iran's military capacities"
  • Iranian regime security forces are maintaining control (no signs of armed forces "melting away")
  • Thousands of Iranian civilian loyalists are gathering in Tehran's public squares, lighting candles and mobile phone torches during 40 days of mourning

Why it matters

  • This conflict represents a fundamental reshaping of Middle Eastern power dynamics, as military action by the US and Israel is destroying Iran's military capabilities regardless of whether the regime survives. The war carries enormous risks because regime change through airpower alone has no historical precedent of success, and previous interventions in Iraq and Libya resulted in prolonged chaos, failed states, and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Iran's population of over 90 million people and complex multi-ethnic composition means that if the regime collapses, the potential civil war and bloodshed could rival or exceed the catastrophic conflicts in Syria and Iraq. The outcome will determine whether Trump's gamble that this war will make the Middle East "a better and safer place" succeeds, or whether it creates another generational disaster in a region already plagued by instability.

What's next

  • Trump believes Iranian people will have their "best chance in generations" to take to the streets and seize power from a weakened regime
  • Netanyahu has promised to ensure his stated goal of crushing "the regime of terror completely" becomes a reality
  • Iran faces 40 days of mourning following the supreme leader's death
  • Both Trump and Netanyahu face elections later this year where war outcomes will significantly impact their political futures

Read full article from source: BBC